From Threat to Action: Donald Trump’s Bold Move – Signing EO ‘Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba’ (Effective Jan. 30, 2026) to Declare Emergency, Accuse Regime of Malign Activities and Hostile Alliances, and Authorize Potential Ad Valorem Duties on Any Nation’s Exports to the U.S. If They Continue Oil Deliveries to Havana, Seen as the Toughest Step Yet to Economically Strangle Cuba and Disrupt Its Energy Dependence

On January 29, 2026, President Donald J. Trump signed an executive order titled “Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba,” set to take effect at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on January 30. The order declares a national emergency related to Cuba, describing the island’s government as an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to U.S. national security and foreign policy. It authorizes the possible use of additional ad valorem tariffs on imports from countries that directly or indirectly supply oil to Cuba. The measure stands as one of the most assertive early foreign-policy actions of Trump’s second term, targeting Cuba’s fragile energy lifeline as a pressure point.

Historical Context: Decades of Strained Relations

Tensions between the United States and Cuba trace back to the 1959 revolution led by Fidel Castro, after which the new government nationalized U.S. assets and aligned with the Soviet Union. In response, Washington imposed a sweeping economic embargo in the early 1960s. Although diplomatic relations briefly thawed under Barack Obama between 2014 and 2016—with restored diplomatic ties and relaxed travel rules—many of those measures were reversed during Trump’s first term.

Since returning to office in January 2025, Trump has resumed a hardline posture. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a Cuban-American long associated with tough sanctions policies, has publicly supported intensified economic pressure. The administration has linked Cuba’s stability to political shifts in Venezuela, including the January 2026 capture of former Venezuelan president Nicolás Maduro, which disrupted oil-for-services arrangements between Caracas and Havana.

Cuba’s Economic Vulnerability

Cuba’s economy has deteriorated significantly in recent years due to the long-standing embargo, pandemic-related tourism losses, internal inefficiencies, and global market pressures. Fuel shortages have become particularly severe. Oil imports are vital for electricity generation, transportation, and industrial output.

Historically, Venezuela provided Cuba with heavily subsidized oil, once reaching roughly 100,000 barrels per day at its peak. By late 2025, that number had dropped dramatically. Russia has provided limited and inconsistent shipments, while other suppliers have played smaller roles.

By 2025–2026, Mexico emerged as Cuba’s principal oil supplier, accounting for a large share of its imported crude. Shipments from Mexico’s state energy company were often framed as humanitarian support. However, the new U.S. executive order directly targets this type of third-country assistance, potentially complicating Mexico’s involvement.

What the Executive Order Does

The order invokes powers under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and the National Emergencies Act. Rather than imposing immediate penalties, it establishes a framework allowing the U.S. government to levy tariffs on goods imported from countries that supply oil to Cuba.

Key provisions include:

• The Secretary of Commerce identifying oil-supplying nations.
• The Secretary of State, in consultation with other agencies, evaluating security concerns and recommending tariff levels.
• Final decisions resting with the president.

This mechanism resembles “secondary sanctions” used in past U.S. policies toward Iran and Venezuela—penalizing external partners rather than the primary target, which is already under heavy restrictions.

The administration argues the measure is designed to counter Cuba’s alleged support for adversarial states such as Russia, China, and Iran, and to deter what it calls destabilizing regional activities.

Potential Effects

Mexico

Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum criticized the order, warning it could worsen humanitarian conditions in Cuba. Mexico has signaled it may seek diplomatic solutions while defending its sovereign right to engage in energy trade.

Russia and Others

Russia and smaller suppliers could also face indirect consequences, though their export volumes are comparatively limited. Countries with substantial trade exposure to the U.S. would likely weigh the risk of tariffs carefully.

Cuba

For Cuba, the stakes are high. Fuel shortages already contribute to extended blackouts and supply disruptions. Additional restrictions on oil flows could deepen economic hardship and potentially increase outward migration pressures.

Domestic and International Reactions

• Supporters in the U.S., particularly among Cuban-American lawmakers, describe the order as a strategic tool to weaken Havana’s governing structure.
• Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel condemned the move, calling it economic aggression and a violation of international norms.
• Advocacy groups and some international observers have criticized the policy as escalating an already decades-long embargo.
• Trade analysts emphasize that no tariffs are automatic; implementation depends on follow-up determinations and formal designations.

Broader Foreign Policy Implications

The executive order aligns with Trump’s broader “America First” strategy, which leverages trade tools to achieve geopolitical aims. It signals that countries engaging economically with sanctioned governments may face consequences. In the context of broader strategic competition in the Western Hemisphere, it reinforces Washington’s intent to limit rival influence near U.S. borders.

However, the policy carries risks. It could strain relations with major trading partners, intensify humanitarian concerns, and further complicate migration dynamics. Whether it significantly alters Cuba’s political trajectory remains uncertain.

As of early February 2026, no specific tariff rates have been announced. The order functions primarily as a legal and strategic framework, leaving its ultimate impact dependent on implementation decisions and international response.