From Threat to Action: Donald Trump’s Bold Move – Signing EO ‘Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba’ (Effective Jan. 30, 2026) to Declare Emergency, Accuse Regime of Malign Activities and Hostile Alliances, and Authorize Potential Ad Valorem Duties on Any Nation’s Exports to the U.S. If They Continue Oil Deliveries to Havana, Seen as the Toughest Step Yet to Economically Strangle Cuba and Disrupt Its Energy Dependence
Trump Signs Executive Order Targeting Cuba’s Oil Supply
On January 29, 2026, President Donald J. Trump signed the Executive Order titled “Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba”, set to take effect at 12:01 a.m. ET on January 30. The order declares a national emergency, labeling the Cuban government’s actions as an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to U.S. national security and foreign policy.
The EO authorizes the potential imposition of additional ad valorem duties (tariffs) on imports from any country that sells or provides oil—directly or indirectly—to Cuba. It represents one of the most assertive early moves in Trump’s second term, building on decades of U.S. efforts to isolate Havana economically, while targeting its critical lifeline: energy supplies.
Background: Longstanding U.S.-Cuba Tensions
Relations between the U.S. and Cuba have been strained since the 1959 Cuban Revolution, when Fidel Castro nationalized American assets and aligned with the Soviet Union. The U.S. imposed a comprehensive economic embargo in the early 1960s, persisting through both Republican and Democratic administrations.
Efforts at détente under President Obama (2014–2016) included eased travel restrictions and diplomatic normalization, but these were partially rolled back during Trump’s first term (2017–2021), which tightened sanctions in response to human rights abuses and Cuba’s support for Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.
In Trump’s second term, which began January 20, 2025, the administration has pursued a hardline approach. Figures like Secretary of State Marco Rubio—a Cuban-American with deep ties to the Miami exile community—have advocated maximum pressure to force regime change or significant concessions. Rubio has publicly tied Cuba’s stability to developments in Venezuela, where a U.S.-backed operation in early January 2026 captured Maduro, disrupting longstanding oil-for-services agreements with Havana.
Cuba’s economy has worsened sharply due to the embargo, COVID-19’s impact on tourism, mismanagement, and external shocks. Chronic shortages of fuel, food, and medicine have led to blackouts, protests (notably in 2021), and mass migration—over 600,000 Cubans arrived at the U.S. border between 2022–2024. Oil imports remain vital: without them, power generation, transportation, and industry grind to a halt.
Historically, Cuba relied on subsidized Venezuelan oil (up to 100,000 barrels per day at its peak), exchanged for Cuban doctors and teachers. By late 2025, sanctions and Venezuela’s decline reduced shipments to around 30,000 bpd. Russia contributed sporadically (6,000 bpd), Algeria minimally, and Mexico emerged as Cuba’s top supplier, providing roughly 44% of imports (~20,000–22,000 bpd early 2025, declining under U.S. pressure).
Details of the Executive Order
The EO invokes the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and the National Emergencies Act, granting broad authority for economic measures. It accuses Cuba of:
- Aligning with hostile actors: Russia (hosting a signals intelligence facility), China, Iran, and transnational groups like Hamas and Hezbollah.
- Contributing to regional instability through migration, violence, and “malign” activities.
- Posing direct threats to U.S. security via espionage and destabilization.
The EO establishes a framework for imposing additional tariffs on goods imported into the U.S. from countries supplying oil to Cuba—a secondary sanction-style measure targeting intermediaries rather than Cuba directly (already heavily embargoed).
Implementation steps include:
- The Secretary of Commerce identifies oil-supplying countries.
- The Secretary of State, in consultation with Commerce, Treasury, USTR, DHS, and others, recommends tariff rates and targets.
- The President makes final decisions on rates, scope, and modifications.
No tariffs are automatic; the EO provides the framework for follow-on determinations. The White House frames the measure as protecting U.S. interests and pressuring Cuba to align with U.S. national security and foreign policy objectives, potentially opening the door to dialogue or concessions.
Potential Targets and Impacts
- Mexico: Cuba’s primary oil supplier. President Claudia Sheinbaum condemned the EO, warning of a potential humanitarian crisis (blackouts, medicine shortages, food distribution failures) and emphasizing diplomatic solutions. Mexico temporarily suspended some shipments following the EO.
- Russia: Could face secondary effects, though shipments are smaller and irregular.
- Algeria and other minor suppliers: Less likely to be affected due to low trade volumes with the U.S.
For Cuba, the order worsens an already severe energy crisis. Fuel shortages threaten daily life, paralyze agriculture and industry, and fuel public discontent. Analysts warn of humanitarian consequences, though U.S. officials emphasize the measure counters Cuba’s malign influence.
Reactions and Global Response
- U.S. supporters: Hardline Cuban-American lawmakers like Rep. Carlos Giménez praised the EO as an effective regime-targeting tool. Rubio linked it to potential post-Maduro reforms.
- Cuba’s government: President Miguel Díaz-Canel condemned it as “fascist, criminal, and genocidal,” claiming it violates international law and represents an attempt at a total fuel blockade.
- Mexico: Sheinbaum emphasized dialogue and humanitarian concerns, rejecting coercion.
- International progressive groups: Organizations like the Cuba Solidarity Campaign (UK) criticized the EO as escalation of the decades-long blockade.
- Media analysts: Some outlets framed it as imperial overreach, part of a “Trump Corollary” to the Monroe Doctrine.
- Trade observers: Legal firms note the EO sets up a process rather than imposing immediate tariffs, signaling companies to monitor developments.
Broader Implications for U.S. Policy
The EO aligns with Trump’s “America First” approach, leveraging tariffs as a tool for security and trade. It mirrors secondary sanctions on Venezuelan oil buyers, signaling costs for aiding sanctioned entities. It also aims to disrupt Cuba’s ties to Russia, China, and Iran.
Risks include:
- Straining relations with Mexico (USMCA partner)
- Humanitarian backlash
- Limited effectiveness given 60+ years of embargoes
- Potential increase in migration pressures
As of early February 2026, no specific tariffs have been enacted; implementation depends on interagency actions. The move underscores Trump’s rapid reshaping of hemispheric policy, though success depends on enforcement and Cuba’s response.
