From Threat to Action: Donald Trump’s Bold Move – Signing EO ‘Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba’ (Effective Jan. 30, 2026) to Declare Emergency, Accuse Regime of Malign Activities and Hostile Alliances, and Authorize Potential Ad Valorem Duties on Any Nation’s Exports to the U.S. If They Continue Oil Deliveries to Havana, Seen as the Toughest Step Yet to Economically Strangle Cuba and Disrupt Its Energy Dependence

On January 29, 2026, President Donald J. Trump signed an Executive Order titled “Addressing Threats to the United States by the Government of Cuba”, marking a decisive and aggressive move in his second term. Effective at 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time on January 30, 2026, the order declares a national emergency, framing Cuba’s actions as an “unusual and extraordinary threat” to U.S. national security and foreign policy. This declaration paves the way for the potential imposition of additional tariffs on imports from any country that directly or indirectly supplies oil to Cuba, signaling a continuation of the U.S. strategy to isolate the Cuban regime and target its most vital resource: energy supplies.

Background: Historical Tensions Between the U.S. and Cuba

The strained relations between the United States and Cuba date back to the 1959 Cuban Revolution, which saw Fidel Castro’s communist government nationalize American assets and align with the Soviet Union during the Cold War. This led to the imposition of a comprehensive economic embargo by the U.S. in the early 1960s, a policy that has endured through both Republican and Democratic administrations. While President Obama’s administration made efforts to thaw relations between the two countries through eased travel restrictions and diplomatic normalization from 2014 to 2016, the Trump administration rolled back many of those measures, citing Cuba’s human rights violations and its support for Venezuela’s regime under Nicolás Maduro.

Trump’s second term, beginning in January 2025, has seen a marked shift toward a hardline stance on Cuba. With key figures like Secretary of State Marco Rubio—whose Cuban-American background and ties to the Miami exile community have influenced his policy—advocating for maximum pressure, the administration has pushed for either regime change or significant concessions from Cuba. This is compounded by the wider geopolitical dynamics in Latin America, especially Cuba’s ties to Venezuela, which was significantly disrupted in January 2026 when former President Nicolás Maduro was captured during a U.S.-backed operation.

The Executive Order: Targeting Cuba’s Energy Lifeline

The executive order, invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) and the National Emergencies Act, targets Cuba’s alignment with hostile actors like Russia, China, and Iran, as well as its role in regional instability through activities such as supporting transnational groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. The order specifically highlights Cuba’s espionage activities and the threat they pose to U.S. security.

The main thrust of the executive order, however, is its plan to impose additional tariffs on goods imported into the U.S. from countries that sell or provide oil to Cuba, aiming to disrupt the Cuban government’s access to critical energy resources. This strategy is akin to the secondary sanctions the U.S. has previously employed against countries that support Iran and Venezuela by purchasing their oil or facilitating energy supplies.

Key Implementation Steps

The process outlined in the executive order is not immediate but involves a series of steps:

1. Identification of Oil Suppliers: The U.S. Secretary of Commerce will identify the countries supplying oil to Cuba.
2. Assessment and Recommendation: The Secretary of State, in consultation with other key agencies such as the Treasury, USTR, and DHS, will evaluate the situation and recommend tariffs and actions based on national security considerations.
3. Presidential Decision: The President will make the final decision on the imposition of tariffs and any necessary modifications.

The fact that tariffs are not automatically imposed but will require further assessment highlights the nuanced nature of the action, positioning it as a tool for U.S. leverage over Cuba and its international partners.

Potential Targets: Mexico in the Spotlight

One of the most significant consequences of the executive order is its potential impact on Mexico, which has become Cuba’s primary oil supplier. In 2025, Mexico accounted for approximately 44% of Cuba’s oil imports, and this relationship has been further strained under the U.S. pressure. Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum condemned the move, warning of potential humanitarian crises in Cuba, including energy shortages, food distribution failures, and widespread blackouts, all of which would worsen Cuba’s already dire economic situation.

Sheinbaum’s response underscores Mexico’s stance on its sovereignty, asserting that its trade policies are not driven by U.S. pressure but by its own decisions. While Mexico has temporarily suspended some oil shipments to Cuba in light of the executive order, it is also actively seeking diplomatic solutions to avoid worsening Cuba’s humanitarian crisis.

Although Cuba relies heavily on Mexican oil, the U.S. has also signaled that other countries, including Russia and Algeria, could face secondary effects, though their oil exports to Cuba are much smaller in scale.

Reactions to the Executive Order

The executive order has sparked intense reactions both domestically and internationally:

• Supporters in the U.S.: Hardline Cuban-American lawmakers, such as Rep. Carlos Giménez and Senator Marco Rubio, have applauded the order. Rubio, in particular, has linked it to broader goals for regime change in Cuba, suggesting that a post-Maduro Cuba could be more aligned with U.S. interests.
• Cuba’s Government: Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel vehemently condemned the move, calling it “fascist, criminal, and genocidal.” Havana has labeled the order a violation of international law, accusing the U.S. of trying to impose a total fuel blockade on the country. The Cuban government has vowed resilience in the face of these measures.
• Mexico: Sheinbaum’s response emphasized the need to prevent a humanitarian disaster, advocating for diplomatic engagement over coercive tactics. Mexico views this as an issue of sovereignty, not simply a matter of U.S. influence.
• International Left and Progressive Groups: Organizations like the Cuba Solidarity Campaign (UK) and others have condemned the executive order as an escalation of the longstanding blockade against Cuba. They argue that it is hypocritical for the U.S. to impose sanctions on Cuba while maintaining relations with other authoritarian regimes.
• Legal and Trade Observers: Legal firms such as Holland & Knight and Clark Hill have warned businesses to monitor the situation closely, as the order’s implementation depends on interagency action. The potential imposition of tariffs could disrupt global supply chains, particularly for companies involved in the oil trade.

Broader Implications for U.S. Foreign Policy

This executive order is a clear continuation of Trump’s “America First” approach, using economic sanctions as leverage in international relations. It mirrors past efforts against Iran and Venezuela, signaling that U.S. allies and adversaries alike must consider the consequences of supporting countries under U.S. sanctions. In the context of global competition, especially with Russia and China, the U.S. sees Cuba as an important battleground in its efforts to limit the influence of these countries in Latin America.

However, the move carries risks. The diplomatic fallout with Mexico—an essential U.S. trading partner—could strain relations, particularly within the framework of the USMCA trade agreement. Furthermore, a humanitarian crisis in Cuba could provoke migration pressures, with an increase in refugees seeking asylum in the U.S., further complicating an already delicate political environment.

As of February 2026, no specific tariffs have been announced, and the timeline for full implementation remains uncertain. The effectiveness of this strategy will depend largely on how the U.S. navigates diplomatic relations, particularly with Mexico, and how Cuba responds to the growing pressure.

Ultimately, this executive order marks a significant step in Trump’s second term, but its success will hinge on how it is enforced and how the geopolitical landscape evolves in the coming months.